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A Time-Variant Travel Time Prediction Model and Its Application in Cooperative Traffic Control System

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This paper presents a travel time prediction model and an application of this model to road vehicle cooperative control systems. The travel time prediction model considers vehicle delay due to downstream queue formation and traffic signal operation. For estimating traffic signal induced delay, this model employs a time variant nonlinear probability function that maps vehicle arrival time at a downstream stopline to the probability of receiving a green signal upon arrival. The probability function is determined iteratively. The travel time prediction model can be applied to any phase-based traffic controller. The road vehicle cooperative control system is developed on the basis of vehicle-to-infrastructure communication. The control system optimises signal timing according to real-time transmitted data and sends speed adjustment recommendations to selected road vehicles. Results from numerical tests validate the accuracy of the travel time prediction model, and clearly demonstrate the benefits of the cooperative control system.

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